2015 VW Golf SEL Lease Expiring in March of 2018

Hi folks:

Struggling on what to do here. I got a 2015 3 year lease on the base model (SEL) E-Golf. 3 years, 45k miles, 2500 down, 225 per mo (taxes and everything all in). Got the 2500 from California and the 450 rebate from SCE. It has been a great car. Lease expires at the end of March. Buyout is 11.9k. From what I hear, I don't think VW will come down on the price and given the battery degradation, makes no sense to buy it.

Want to lease a new one but the prices I have been quoted are insane. Looks like 7,500 per year or large amount down and at best its coming in the 300+ range per month for a lease. Wondering if and when the lease price will become reasonable given the competition. Thinking the Hyundai Ionic may make more sense.

What's everyone doing with the expiring leases? Does VW offer you something better than the residual price?

Thanks!

If you haven't heard from VW Credit by now regarding a residual reduction, you won't. And at $11,900, they're not going to offer you one; just look at how much used ones are going for on AutoTrader and Cars.com.

My lease expires this summer and I am most likely going to buy mine, and its residual is a bit higher than yours. The bigger battery of the 2017/2018 is nice, but the current range of mine is well within my needs, and CCS + a second car will meet my extended range needs the few times it comes up. My car has less than 18k miles and it would be a shame to give back a car that's almost 2/3 paid off from original MSRP with such few miles.

BTW the SEL is NOT the base model; it's VW's top trim designator in the US for most if not all of its models. For 2015 there is the eGolf LE (distinguishable by halogen headlamps vs. LED and hubcaps vs. alloy wheels) that was introduced well into the 2015 model year. From 2016 onward the trim levels are SE and SEL.

I'm in a similar spot: 2015 SEL Premium with a lease expiring in April 2018. I use it almost exclusively as a commuter car so I only have 11k miles on it. I'm planning to buy it at the end of the lease as well but I was wondering what the battery warranty situation is -- I think it's 7 years right? So if I were to keep it for a few more years, would I be eligible for a battery replacement if the charging capacity falls below a certain threshold?

I'm just trying to imagine what my car might still be worth come 2021 or 2022, even if it still has low mileage, given where the EV market will be by then. I'd imagine it'd be worth more if it had new battery and low mileage.

These might be dumb questions but after reading this forum for a while I know there are some really sharp people here who could maybe provide some insights.

Thanks!

Battery warranty is 8 years/100 k miles, whichever comes first, for at least 70% net capacity. The question remains: what is the net capacity when brand new? VW won't clearly say, but I did find a European manual that says the brand new net capacity is 64 Ah. Fully charged, the pack should be about 357 volts, so that works out to 64*357=22.9 kWh, but I'm not sure I believe this as this leaves only a 5% buffer out of the 24.2 kWh gross pack rating. Or does VW define the net capacity assuming 323 (nominal) volts, or 20.7 kWh? Or somewhere in between 20.7 and 22.9 kWh? I don't know. I've asked VW USA and can't get a response other than "the dealer knows". Want to find out your % net capacity? Prepare to pay for the information.

So, assuming the low end of 20.7 kWh, a net capacity of 14.5 kWh (or 16 kWh on the high end) on a degraded pack will trigger the warranty, assuming VW doesn't find a way to say you violated the terms of the warranty. I've asked VW repeatedly what constitutes "consecutive and repeated" DCFC use, but did not get an answer.

I've been tracking my pack capacity over time and I believe it's at about 19.0 kWh after 24,000 miles of use and almost 3 years. At this rate of decay, the has a good chance to drop below 70% during the warranty period.

What will the car be worth in 2022? That's a tough question. By then, I bet it will be hard to find a new EV that goes less than 300 miles on a charge. If you have a car with a degraded pack that only gets 60 miles of range under ideal conditions, it probably won't be worth more than a grand or two, I would guess. If 60 miles still works for you, then why get rid of it?

We sucked it up and turned in our 2015 and leased a 2017 SEL. Yes the lease amount went up significantly - from $340 to $400 for us. The extra convenience was more important to us than the money.

The 50% increase in battery is much appreciated - even if not necessary for us. Now any trips an hour or less away are a no brainer. And usually we now only need to charge twice a week at most. Also a lot of powertrain refinement had been added - it drives much more smoothly so I don't have to put it into eco mode when my wife's in the car.

I got a sales solicitation from my dealer, Sunnyvale VW, asking if we decided what we were going to do at the end of our lease. He was fishing for leads to lease another. I should have just told him we were getting a Model 3, but instead I just said we are going to do a straight lease return and not lease another car.

Is Sunnyvale VW offering any discounts on residuals or incentive for new leases? I find it hard to believe that VW won't offer some monetary incentive because of the 2018 Leaf.

f1geek said:

Is Sunnyvale VW offering any discounts on residuals or incentive for new leases? I find it hard to believe that VW won't offer some monetary incentive because of the 2018 Leaf.

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Residuals are set by VW credit, not the dealer. Overall, incentives will come down to supply and demand. VW America has a certain number they need to move. If there are not enough takers, they will start putting "money on the hood" as they say. Most of the time this will be hidden factory to dealer incentives, so it will be up to savvy customers to find out how low they can go.

Sunnyvale VW frequently has advertised specials that include this kind of incentive when they have a large supply of cars. They currently have 58 e-Golfs on the lot. The 4 cars that are SE without Fast Charge have an advertised special lease of $137/mo * 30 months + $4,420 + TTL. That's just under $10,500 all-in for the full 30 month lease term. Unless you exceed the income qualifications, you could get the State rebate of $2,500 off that. That still comes to about $265/mo with all costs included.

miimura said:

f1geek said:

Is Sunnyvale VW ....
.... Unless you exceed the income qualifications, you could get the State rebate of $2,500 off that. That still comes to about $265/mo with all costs included.

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Doesn't the dealership take the $2500 for a lease?

NurStrom said:

miimura said:

f1geek said:

Is Sunnyvale VW ....
.... Unless you exceed the income qualifications, you could get the State rebate of $2,500 off that. That still comes to about $265/mo with all costs included.

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Doesn't the dealership take the $2500 for a lease?

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No that is a California rebate to the consumer.

NurStrom said:

miimura said:

f1geek said:

Is Sunnyvale VW ....
.... Unless you exceed the income qualifications, you could get the State rebate of $2,500 off that. That still comes to about $265/mo with all costs included.

Click to expand...

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Doesn't the dealership take the $2500 for a lease?

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No, on my lease VW Credit took the $7,500 federal tax credit and passed it through as a capital reduction in the lease contract. I got a check directly from the state program administrator (CCSE) for the $2,500.

The residual on our 2015 LE is $13,100. I don't know how the residual on a SEL is lower than mine unless there were a lot of miles included in the lease. The OP's $11k actually sounds reasonable to me.

mark11aa said:

Hi folks:

Buyout is 11.9k. From what I hear, I don't think VW will come down on the price and given the battery degradation, makes no sense to buy it.


Thanks!

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How much did the battery degrade, and how much quick charging did you percentage wise of the recharges?

As of now, degradation is relatively undetectable. My concern is that if i buy and finance over 5 years, in 5 years (at the end of the 8), the battery will have degraded between half and 100% and what is the point of the car at that point (it becomes a glorified golf cart).

Given the pricing I got on this one (235 all in with 15k per year miles) I don't see the benefit of getting the new one which seems to be upwards of 300 with 7500 miles per year. Especially given that there are other competitors out there with lower prices.

If degradation isn't that noticeable, then you may have lost up to 10% of your range. A the end of 8 years, I highly doubt you'll be at 50% net capacity, but 70% - 80% or the original capacity is probably more likely. The question is whether you can live with a car that needs to stop to charge after 50 miles of highway driving (assuming 10 miles left) and then DC Fast Charge. The battery warranty may also be triggered at 8 years and then the question is, how will VW honor the warranty?

Only you can decide if you can live with a degraded pack, but if you can, I'm guessing the cheapest option for you is to keep your e-Golf.

mark11aa said:

As of now, degradation is relatively undetectable. My concern is that if i buy and finance over 5 years, in 5 years (at the end of the 8), the battery will have degraded between half and 100% and what is the point of the car at that point (it becomes a glorified golf cart).

Given the pricing I got on this one (235 all in with 15k per year miles) I don't see the benefit of getting the new one which seems to be upwards of 300 with 7500 miles per year. Especially given that there are other competitors out there with lower prices.

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If your budget is such that you will need 5 years to pay off the residual, it's probably not the car for you to keep. 8 years total is way too long to be making payments on any car, much less an early EV that's already had a longer-range replacement. 2, 3 years tops on paying off the residual on this car IMHO.

If you plan on keeping the car, don't use the quick charge DC chargers on your car. It's that simple. They degrade the life of the battery. A Quick Charger means a quick life for the battery too, it's not without a penalty, it's a trade off for convenience. VW recommends you charge at home as often as possible. They also recommend using the quick charging feature "sparingly". That's pretty much code for "on rare occasions. "

DCFC usage is perfectly acceptable. It’s that simple.

VW actually says “Frequent and consecutive high-voltage charging (including DC charging) can permanently decrease the capacity of the high-voltage battery. See owner’s manual for details.”

If you don’t use DCFC multiple times every day, the battery will be fine. VW chose this battery chemistry because of the low internal resistance, so heat generation is not a concern if you follow the VW guidelines.

If you keep the car, continue to use DCFC and don’t worry about battery life as long as you can live with a 58 mile car (70% of the rates 83 miles) at the end of 8 years or 100,000 miles.

f1geek said:

DCFC usage is perfectly acceptable. It’s that simple.

VW actually says “Frequent and consecutive high-voltage charging (including DC charging) can permanently decrease the capacity of the high-voltage battery. See owner’s manual for details.”

If you don’t use DCFC multiple times every day, the battery will be fine. VW chose this battery chemistry because of the low internal resistance, so heat generation is not a concern if you follow the VW guidelines.

If you keep the car, continue to use DCFC and don’t worry about battery life as long as you can live with a 58 mile car (70% of the rates 83 miles) at the end of 8 years or 100,000 miles.

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You assume the battery will make it through warranty, with quick charging frequently. That's a false assumption. Ask anyone in the lithium battery business what quick charging does to battery capacity and longevity, regardless of what the internal resistance is of the battery. If the internal resistance was low, the battery wouldn't be generating it's own heat while recharging DCFC. Most other car makers use cooling systems for their battery. Nissan doesn't, and VW doesn't. We know what has happened to the Nissan batteries and quick charging. Ask anyone that's done Radio Controlled battery powered drones what fast charging does to battery life, for the sake of saving some time. Or ask people in the Lithium battery business. The chemistry makes heat while recharging, the faster your recharge, the more heat is made over a shorter period of time, limiting the ability of the battery to dissipate the heat properly, damaging the chemistry inside.

Nothing likes heat in the automotive industry, not motor oil, not grease, not batteries. It speeds up the chemical reaction that caused failure, sooner, rather than later. It breaks the battery down, sooner. Ask anyone that lives from Florida to Arizona how short a time batteries last down there in the southern heat. Fast recharging generates heat, lots of it, in a short amount of time. That's problematic, with a passive cooling system the VW e-Golf has. Ask Panasonic, Toshiba, Samsung, any of the top Li Ion 18650 battery makers. Fast charging diminishes the life of the battery and lowers the capacity. Feel free to show us any white papers that have been reviewed by peers that demonstrate otherwise. It's a severe limitation on the VW quick charging function, passive cooling.

No one knows how the e-Golf batteries are going to fare. The OP says he's experiencing battery degradation, and he's hesitant now to buy his car at lease end. He may know a lot more than he's telling here.

I agree that frequent and consecutive DCFC will result in a faster loss of battery capacity. Chicken Little, VW put the DCFC port on the car so it can be used., but not abused. If you charge your car once a day at night (like many people do), then using DCFC every work day is NOT frequent. That's 5 DCFC uses for every 12 charging sessions, or 42% of the time. That is NOT frequent. And, if you RTFM, VW says frequent and consecutive charging "CAN" reduce capacity, not "WILL" lose capacity. Unlike inhaling diesel fumes, which WILL kill you, given enough fume inhalation - that's why VW tested their "clean" diesel exhaust on monkeys.

f1geek said:

I agree that frequent and consecutive DCFC will result in a faster loss of battery capacity. Chicken Little, VW put the DCFC port on the car so it can be used., but not abused. If you charge your car once a day at night (like many people do), then using DCFC every work day is NOT frequent. That's 5 DCFC uses for every 12 charging sessions, or 42% of the time. That is NOT frequent. And, if you RTFM, VW says frequent and consecutive charging "CAN" reduce capacity, not "WILL" lose capacity. Unlike inhaling diesel fumes, which WILL kill you, given enough fume inhalation - that's why VW tested their "clean" diesel exhaust on monkeys.

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Funny you should mention that... I am off to Dallas to buy a new 2015 Passat SEL TDI on Jan 31st. If you only inhale diesel fumes infrequently, they won't kill you either, say 42% of the time. They put that diesel particulate filter and NOx trap on there to be used. I'd like you to cite for me all the names of people that directly died of diesel. You should be sniffing the crap that comes out of jet engines, completely unfiltered. I'm sure you've flown on jets a few times in your life, for vacation. Your thought process and hate for diesel defy logic. Wondering where you were brainwashed, that you need to tell people what sort of power they should use for their form of transportation. Most people use cost effective transportation for their own personal needs. Don't be judgemental about fuel choices. 10 years ago, everyone was on a biodiesel kick, saying it was carbon neutral. It also wrecked fuel injection systems on cars, gummed up injectors, went rancid, and contaminated motor oil in the crankcase waaaay too soon. Funny how it's come and gone.