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 Post subject: Re: Bay Area leases
PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 6:52 pm 
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RonDawg wrote:
VW doesn't need to "clear" them as stock on 2017 eGolfs is low and AFAIK the 2018's aren't in US dealers yet. According to Cars.com, there aren't even any new eGolfs in all of SoCal, the nearest one being in Santa Maria. The next closest dealers with any new eGolfs are in the Bay Area/Sacramento, and then in Oregon.

Last month I came close to buying a 2017 with a September 2017 build date but the dealer wouldn't budge much on price. Normally dealers get nervous if the car sits on their lot more than 30 days, as they lose any manufacturer to dealer incentives. They especially get antsy if it's more than 60 days as they now have to start paying interest on the loan to purchase the car from the manufacturer, backdated to the day they took possession off the truck.

The reason the SEL's are being discounted is because at MSRP it cannot compete with the Bolt and (if Elon ever decides to make them) the base Model 3 with their 200+ mile ranges for about the same price. By discounting them heavily they become very comparable to the new Leaf despite about a 25 mile range deficit.


VW needs the 2017s off the lots before the 2018s are released. It appears that VW (corporate) is offering a large incentive on the 2017 e-Golf to the dealers and I believe that's the reason for the advertised $7k-$8k discounts. I wouldn't be surprised if the 2018s are already waiting at the ports here in the USA; they will probably be at the dealers next month. That's the sense I get from watching the local inventory dwindle.


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 Post subject: Re: Bay Area leases
PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 7:21 pm 
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Location: SoCal
I can tell you from recent (within the last month) experience that VWoA is NOT offering big incentives to dealers, at least for the SE. They're doing so for the SEL because again at MSRP it simply cannot compete with 200+ mile EVs for about the same price, even factoring in a cheap-looking interior with uncomfortable seats (Bolt) or inconsistent build quality with uncertain reliability (Tesla Model 3).

There are too few 2017's left for them to be a factor in whether or not to release the 2018's. Many if not most dealers in the 11 states where it's sold have zero new eGolfs, and as I mentioned there's nothing left south of the Grapevine. Remember they still need to sell x number of ZEV-compliant cars or else buy credits from Nissan/Tesla/GM or pay a fine (of which they've paid a lot in the last year or so for dieselgate).

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2015 eGolf SEL (originally leased, bought out lease)
former EV: 2012 Nissan Leaf SV (lease returned)
Range Extender: 2017 VW Golf Alltrack S 4Motion


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 Post subject: Re: Bay Area leases
PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 7:54 pm 
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Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2015 2:32 pm
Posts: 517
Location: Santa Cruz, CA
RonDawg wrote:
They're doing so for the SEL because again at MSRP it simply cannot compete with 200+ mile EVs for about the same price


This makes sense, and we've seen it before. I remember last year a few folks posted getting an SEL for only slightly more than an SE w/ DCFC. The heat pump and LED headlights are worth $1k by themselves, so it's a nice deal even if you don't need all the bells as whistles of the SEL trim.

RonDawg wrote:
Remember they still need to sell x number of ZEV-compliant cars or else buy credits from Nissan/Tesla/GM



I believe miimura says these numbers are based on model year, not year of sale. So yes, the 2018s may be irrelevant. This also would explain why they weren't in a rush to get the 2017s to dealers and what was promised as a Spring 2017 date slipped to Fall.

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2016 e-Golf SE in Urano Grey leased 8/1/2016 for $1500 down + $50 x 24 months * Purchased 7/31/2018 * ChargePoint Home 32a (wired)
2018 BMW i3s REx in Mineral Gray purchased 6/12/2018 w/ Giga, Tech, Parking, CarPlay, Harmon Kardons, and of course Moonroof


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 Post subject: Re: Bay Area leases
PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 10:56 pm 
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Joined: Thu May 03, 2018 4:04 pm
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VW can't send 2018 e-Golfs to the dealers while there are any significant number of 2017s still on the lots. Inventory has been declining because VW isn't shipping any more 2017s in preparation for the arrival of the 2018s. I don't understand exactly how the game is played, but their e-Golf model year schedule is based on CARB credits and they have apparently finally decided at this late date to move on to the 2018 e-Golfs. I contend that we will see them arrive sometime in the next 8 weeks or so.

Sonnen VW was advertising a $7,500 discount "on all remaining 2017 e-Golf SE and SEL models" while Serramonte was offering an $8,000 discount on SELs. So I wouldn't say it's conclusive that the VW corporate incentive has only been for SELs. IMHO it looks like an effort to clear out inventory. However, I do hope you're right that at least part of their motivation is to remain competitive with the Chevy Bolt and Tesla Model 3. That means they will likely continue the large discounts when the 2018 e-Golfs arrive this summer (and I'll be shopping for one).

According to InsideEVs e-Golf sales in the USA have averaged around 300/month. In 2018 the average so far has been more like 200/month. I'm hopeful VW will do something to bolster sales such as adding features (e.g. digital cockpit) and lowering the price.


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 Post subject: Re: Bay Area leases
PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 4:42 pm 
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Location: SoCal
slk23 wrote:
VW can't send 2018 e-Golfs to the dealers while there are any significant number of 2017s still on the lots.


I'd like to know what your idea of "significant number" is as from my research, less than 50 exist throughout the country, with large swaths (including SoCal) being completely bereft of new eGolfs.

The only place you'll find those deals is the Bay Area, as that's where the majority of the remaining stock seem to be at.

_________________
2015 eGolf SEL (originally leased, bought out lease)
former EV: 2012 Nissan Leaf SV (lease returned)
Range Extender: 2017 VW Golf Alltrack S 4Motion


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 Post subject: Re: Bay Area leases
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 11:05 am 
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RonDawg wrote:
I'd like to know what your idea of "significant number" is as from my research, less than 50 exist throughout the country, with large swaths (including SoCal) being completely bereft of new eGolfs.

The only place you'll find those deals is the Bay Area, as that's where the majority of the remaining stock seem to be at.


Is it your opinion that VW will continue to sell 2017 e-Golfs in the USA? How long do you think they'll do that?

IMHO stock is low and getting lower because VW is getting ready to release the 2018s. They would naturally do some coordination to give their dealers a chance to sell remaining 2017 stock before any announcements concerning the 2018 e-Golfs are made. Based on declining inventory, even in the S.F. Bay Area, I'm hopeful the 2018s will arrive by mid-summer.


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 Post subject: Re: Bay Area leases
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 7:18 pm 
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Location: Santa Cruz, CA
slk23 wrote:
Based on declining inventory, even in the S.F. Bay Area, I'm hopeful the 2018s will arrive by mid-summer.


That's when they arrived last year. Started to trickle in around June, but based on their sales figures and just observation there weren't nearly same number as in 2016. I have no reason to think this year will be any different.

FYI if you live in Santa Cruz, Monterey, or San Benito counties, there should be a local $2000 rebate from March to June. Those funds get depleted fast so if you live in those counties and are on the fence, I'd jump on a 2017 now rather than waiting for a 2018.

_________________
2016 e-Golf SE in Urano Grey leased 8/1/2016 for $1500 down + $50 x 24 months * Purchased 7/31/2018 * ChargePoint Home 32a (wired)
2018 BMW i3s REx in Mineral Gray purchased 6/12/2018 w/ Giga, Tech, Parking, CarPlay, Harmon Kardons, and of course Moonroof


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 Post subject: Re: Bay Area leases
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 4:08 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:01 am
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Location: SoCal (Costa Mesa)
slk23 wrote:
Based on declining inventory, even in the S.F. Bay Area, I'm hopeful the 2018s will arrive by mid-summer.

I was informed by two SoCal GMs that the '18s will arrive late this year at best...high probability early '19.


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