2019 e-Golf 'unlikely'

I too am wondering the same thing.

I've been try to buy a white/beige/DAP 2017 e-Golf SEL since mid 2016. Back then VW were saying the 2017 model (with the increased range of 125 miles) would be out in November 2016. So I waited. They missed that deadline and promised it for the following month. Rinse and repeat that promise all the way until it finally releases 1 year later in November 2017! I had too much on my plate during November & December so I went to buy one in January (just 2 months after release) only to find no local dealers had the combo I wanted. So I tried to order one only to find out VW were no longer taking orders! Then I heard they weren't making anymore. WTF! So I set my mind on a 2018 model by watching the US inventory of 2017 e-Golfs dwindle via:

http://www.cars.com/for-sale/searchresults.action/?mdId=56107&mkId=20089&page=1&perPage=20&rd=99999&searchSource=GN_BREADCRUMB&showMore=true&sort=price-highest&stkTypId=28880&zc=01810

My data appears below. Note that the cars.com total is a little less than the true total because not all car dealerships work with cars.com. However, I've had various dealers look up the actual 2017 e-Golf US inventory and it's maybe out by 30 cars or so. In the data below, the number of cars sold each month is official (numbers provided by VW) and the rest of the data is me monitoring the cars.com total slowly falling. As you'll see, as of right now there is less than one month's supply of 2017 e-Golfs in the entire USA. So I'm thinking "hooray", any day now for the 2018's! However, not one dealership that I've spoken with (both locally here in MA or far away in CA) has heard anything at all about the 2018 release. It's quite apparent now that VW will see their inventory go to zero this month and have no sales thereafter until they release the 2018's. I never owned an electric vehicle, I researched long and hard and decided on the e-Golf (SEL), I really want one, but VW has been obstructing me at every turn - OMG, could they possibly be any more effed up!

Nov 289 e-Golfs officially sold in November
Dec 343 e-Golfs officially sold in December
Jan 178 e-Golfs officially sold in January
Feb 198 e-Golfs officially sold in February
3/01 270
3/03 258
3/06 252
3/07 255
3/10 261
3/12 257
3/13 256
3/15 251
3/17 248
3/18 240
3/19 228
3/20 223
3/21 223
3/22 221
3/23 212
3/24 213
3/26 210
3/27 198
3/28 196
3/29 195
3/30 195
3/31 187 164 e-Golfs officially sold in March
4/01 176
4/03 169
4/05 164
4/07 161
4/08 157
4/10 144
4/15 136
4/18 128
4/19 127
4/23 114
4/24 112
4/27 100
4/28 94
4/29 90 128 e-Golfs officially sold in April
5/2 82
5/3 80

MickM said:

I too am wondering the same thing.

I've been try to buy a white/beige/DAP 2017 e-Golf SEL since mid 2016.

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I've been looking in the San Francisco Bay Area and only a couple dealers have the e-Golf SEL w/DAP. One is Stevens Creek but they are only offering a $1,000 discount. Other dealers are offering $7,500 - $8,000 off SELs without DAP. I really like the Digital Cockpit but at that price I can wait for the 2018 e-Golf.

https://www.stevenscreekvw.com/new-vehicles/e-golf/

I'm feeling really lucky I was able to get an SEL with DAP back in December. TBH, I don't know why they build the SEL w/o it, because the SEL isn't worth the price premium over the SE unless you get the DAP.

In California, 14% of cars sold must be zero emission or manufacturers face fines. However, it's not a straightforward 14% as there are credits for Partial ZEVs, carryovers, and credits bought from other manufacturers (Tesla has a nice business selling credits to other carmakers). It's crazy complicated - you can get more info here: https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/zevtutorial/zev_tutorial_webcast.pdf

After very bad pollution in the 60's and 70's California was granted an exemption by the EPA that lets it enforce stricter pollution requirements than the rest of the country. However, that's had the effect of letting California dictate the air standards for the entire US, as the market is so large. The Trump administration is weighing whether to allow California to continue to have this exemption.

VW may be gambling that the exemption will be repealed before deciding to release 2018 E-Golfs in the US. Or they may have sold enough Egolfs in other states to get enough credits. Demand is strong in Europe and prices are higher. If the exemption stands, they'll probably release late this summer, when the 2017 inventory is cleared.

Interestingly, California mandates a 10 year, 150,000 mile warranty on the battery for all electric cars. But it's not specific as to the amount of degradation allowed.

Voltron said:

After very bad pollution in the 60's and 70's California was granted an exemption by the EPA that lets it enforce stricter pollution requirements than the rest of the country. However, that's had the effect of letting California dictate the air standards for the entire US, as the market is so large. The Trump administration is weighing whether to allow California to continue to have this exemption.

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The legal process will take months to unravel the CA EPA exemption. Courts has to listen to the justification of why the current stringent emission standards are purportedly too prescriptive. Certainly, this process will be an interesting discussion topic later on.

Breathing air that is defined by AQMD that is "good" is far better for quality of life than breathing moderate or unhealthy. It's a reasonable expectation for any resident of any SoCal neighborhood to be able to breathe air that is good quality.

CA is granted a waiver by statute, with the condition that the waiver will be granted if and only if CA standards are more stringent than the federal standards (the statute I'm referencing is the US Clean Air Act, a federal law). CA recently sued the EPA (as have all the states that follow CA's emissions standards, as they are legally allowed to, per the US Clean Air Act) because its waiver is guaranteed by the statute. If you read the wording in the US Clean Air Act, the current EPA has no legal basis to revoke the CA waiver. I suspect the legal process may take years, not months. In the mean time, nothing will change with regards to emissions requirements. Besides, the current EPA is only suggested changing the regulations from 2022 to 2025. The 2022 standards are already strict enough that automakers are loathe to spend billions of research and development dollars and not recover their investment. Ford, GM, Honda, and Fiat Chrysler have already publicly indicated that they are not changing their strategy to reduce emissions to zero even if US federal standards change.

VW recently announced their US 2019 lineup, and while there are 5 Golf variants, there is no mention of the e-Golf.

https://media.vw.com/en-us/releases/1075

I had hoped that they were only skipping the 2018 model year, but now it's looking more likely there will be no 2019 either. It is still possible there will be a later, separate announcement like the 2017 model year, but who knows.

However, VW did do the paperwork to get the 2018 and 2019 model year approved with CARB for carpool stickers, approved for sale and earning CARB ZEV credits.

https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/onroad/cert/pcldtmdv/2018/volkswagengroupofamerica_pc_a4130117_0_z_e.pdf
https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/onroad/cert/pcldtmdv/2019/volkswagengroupofamerica_pc_a4130124_0_z_e.pdf

The paperwork from CARB for the 2019 model year e-Golf is dated August 23, 2018.

Of course, retail sale is another matter. This paperwork may just be for the planned car sharing service in Sacramento.

Very interesting arb data, miiumra. What is the AER for the 2017 e-Golf? I see the non-existent 2018 and 2019 e-Golfs have an AER of 184 miles. If true, that indicates a ~53 kWh battery pack.

f1geek said:

Very interesting arb data, miiumra. What is the AER for the 2017 e-Golf? I see the non-existent 2018 and 2019 e-Golfs have an AER of 184 miles. If true, that indicates a ~53 kWh battery pack.

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Nope. It's the same as the 2017. UDDS AER is a very lenient test cycle. The standard practice for calculating EPA range is to average the UDDS cycle with the LA5 cycle and multiply by 0.7. UDDS * 0.7 is 128.8 miles. So, averaging in the LA5 city test will result in the same 125 mile EPA range that the 2017 model has.