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 Post subject: Thoughts on 2019 Tesla Model 3 and effect on e-Golf pricing
PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2019 11:27 am 
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Joined: Mon Oct 05, 2015 2:01 pm
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Now that the $35,000 Tesla 3 is out with 220 miles range, I'm curious as to what people here think a 2019 e-Golf SEL with only 125 miles of range is going to drop to, price range wise, before Fed tax credit and anything else.

What would you now look at to buy or lease, for that kind of money, and why?

My thoughts are that Tesla just fired a shot across the bow of every single other electric car maker in the entry level market, for a price war.

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on 2019 Tesla Model 3 and effect on e-Golf pric
PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:46 pm 
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Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2015 2:32 pm
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Location: Santa Cruz, CA
It's first worth noting that the price drop for the Model 3 was likely done to compensate for Tesla's hitting their first federal tax credit drop-off quota...and perhaps stay ahead of other 200+ mile range EVs coming out this year such as the Leaf Plus, Hyundai Kona, and Audi e-Tron SUV. You'll get up to $7500 back from uncle sam on those, but only $3750 on a Tesla.

Also worth noting the base Model 3 for $35k comes fairly bare-bones, and only in black. Change the color to blue, silver, or white, add power seats, and either a white interior or nicer looking wheels, and you're at a sales price of $40k. Starting July 1st, Tesla's tax credit will be sliced in half again, to only $1875. At that point I think the greatest selling point of a Model 3 won't be price or even style, but rather access to Tesla's supercharging network. While CCS/SAE DCFCs continue to be built, the reality is planning a road-trip around them is still very challenging. I took a trip down to San Luis Obispo in the i3 last summer, and let's just say thank goodness I had the range extender because the ChargePoint DCFCs in Paso Robles and Salinas were both broken, but not marked as such by Chargepoint :?

I plan to take a good look at the Kona when it arrives, which should be soon (looks like a few dealers in SoCal already have them). My finance's Subaru is starting to have problems, so she's been using my e-Golf as a commuter but driving it more and more, experiencing the inevitable range anxiety, especially on cold days. We're considering bumping up to 2019 e-Golf since it solves that problem, but it would take a pretty massive price drop to do so. Like a sale price of $27k for an SE and $32k for an SEL. We'd rather just put the money towards something with 200+ mile range so we don't have buyer's remorse in a couple years, even if it means paying a bit more.

As for what I'd buy right now....it's actually a used Model S. The prices on those continue to plunge, and the same car that went for $50k last year is now well below $40k and seems to be stablizing. Granted no rebates, but it's a full-sized luxury car with all the bells and whistles. And I've even seen a few with AutoPilot at that price point

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2016 e-Golf SE in Urano Grey leased 8/1/2016 for $1500 down + $50 x 24 months * Purchased 7/31/2018 * ChargePoint Home 32a (wired)
2018 BMW i3s REx in Mineral Gray purchased 6/12/2018 w/ Giga, Tech, Parking, CarPlay, Harmon Kardons, and of course Moonroof


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on 2019 Tesla Model 3 and effect on e-Golf pric
PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:29 am 
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Joined: Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:53 pm
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Given that I was able to get my 2019 for $28,500 with the full Federal rebate it would have been $10,250+ tax more for the Tesla. That's almost 50% more then the net price of my eGolf. If I needed to travel more than 200 miles in a day more than a few times a year then maybe I could justify it.

And let's be real, when you look at the $35k model, its real hard not to want to add several thousands in upgrades.

That being said, I am excited to see the $35k M3 out.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on 2019 Tesla Model 3 and effect on e-Golf pric
PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2019 2:46 pm 
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Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:20 pm
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Quote:
Given that I was able to get my 2019 for $28,500 with the full Federal rebate it would have been $10,250+ tax more for the Tesla. That's almost 50% more then the net price of my eGolf. If I needed to travel more than 200 miles in a day more than a few times a year then maybe I could justify it.


Where was this? Any chance it was in SoCal? :) My lease is up in August and I'm starting to get nervous I'm going to miss out on any deals.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on 2019 Tesla Model 3 and effect on e-Golf pric
PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2019 3:16 pm 
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This was in WA but I imagine dealers will be looking to unload what they have left. I would check with the dealers in your area and see who is looking to play ball. I'd imagine you could get it for maybe another $1,000 less than $28500.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on 2019 Tesla Model 3 and effect on e-Golf pric
PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:19 pm 
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Joined: Sat Feb 20, 2016 8:30 am
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E-Golf prices are dropping like a rock. Capistrano VW has them for 26.8 on the website. https://www.capovw.com/new-volkswagen-e ... istrano-ca

Just wait if you can, they are going for 23k new on the East coast.

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on 2019 Tesla Model 3 and effect on e-Golf pric
PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:31 pm 
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Sptgolf wrote:
E-Golf prices are dropping like a rock. Capistrano VW has them for 26.8 on the website. https://www.capovw.com/new-volkswagen-e ... istrano-ca

Just wait if you can, they are going for 23k new on the East coast.


I'd probably be looking for a SEL. I think the green is kind of nice, but white is fine, too.

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on 2019 Tesla Model 3 and effect on e-Golf pric
PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:25 am 
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Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2015 2:32 pm
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Location: Santa Cruz, CA
Sptgolf wrote:
E-Golf prices are dropping like a rock. Capistrano VW has them for 26.8 on the website.


And now Sunnyvale is knocking $8k off certain SEs and SELs:

https://www.sunnyvalevw.com/new-invento ... or-model-2

If that's a legitimate dealer discount and no funny business, I'd actually be making money by trading in my 2016 SE for a 2019, thanks to the $1500 Monterey Bay county rebate.

But man...I really don't know if I'd want to commit 30 months to anything under 200 mile range.

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2016 e-Golf SE in Urano Grey leased 8/1/2016 for $1500 down + $50 x 24 months * Purchased 7/31/2018 * ChargePoint Home 32a (wired)
2018 BMW i3s REx in Mineral Gray purchased 6/12/2018 w/ Giga, Tech, Parking, CarPlay, Harmon Kardons, and of course Moonroof


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on 2019 Tesla Model 3 and effect on e-Golf pric
PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2019 3:18 pm 
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johnnylingo wrote:
Sptgolf wrote:
E-Golf prices are dropping like a rock. Capistrano VW has them for 26.8 on the website.


And now Sunnyvale is knocking $8k off certain SEs and SELs:

https://www.sunnyvalevw.com/new-invento ... or-model-2

If that's a legitimate dealer discount and no funny business, I'd actually be making money by trading in my 2016 SE for a 2019, thanks to the $1500 Monterey Bay county rebate.

But man...I really don't know if I'd want to commit 30 months to anything under 200 mile range.


Yep... and you can bet as more cars come out with ranges close to 200 miles or more, for 35k.... is going to drop the resale value on all the current e-Golf VW products in the toilet.

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on 2019 Tesla Model 3 and effect on e-Golf pric
PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2019 9:23 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:24 am
Posts: 781
Location: SoCal
johnnylingo wrote:
If that's a legitimate dealer discount and no funny business, I'd actually be making money by trading in my 2016 SE for a 2019, thanks to the $1500 Monterey Bay county rebate.


Only issue is if the 2019’s are this cheap, they’re not going to offer you that much for an older eGolf, especially a 24 kWH one.

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