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 Post subject: Re: buying golf in SF Bay area without access to caif rebat
PostPosted: Sun Mar 26, 2017 5:13 pm 
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johnnylingo wrote:
bizzle wrote:
used value is dictated by market conditions more than what someone paid for any given commodity.


He's not saying that.

No, that's exactly what he's arguing.

His second sentence of the first post of this entire thread claims, "the calif market price for a used 2016 should be lower than for a new 2016 with rebate, as most buyers can get rebate."

He continues to cite JT's out of pocket expenses from two years ago, which are completely irrelevant to a discussion about new or used pricing today.

He also cites a new eGolf for $28K (before TT&L, FYI) and then concludes that the market price for the car is $18K because the person who was thinking about it qualified for rebates and incentives even though he does not. The market price for that car is $28K, not $18K, which is the point that continues to be lost in both of your positions. The only way you can argue the market price for that car is $18K is by also arguing that any discounts/incentives/bargaining that is realized by the original purchaser should be passed through to second owners. If you argue that you aren't saying that, but your points depend on it, you are arguing it whether or not you realize that's what you are doing.


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 Post subject: Re: buying golf in SF Bay area without access to caif rebat
PostPosted: Sun Mar 26, 2017 6:36 pm 
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Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2015 2:32 pm
Posts: 397
Location: Santa Cruz, CA
bizzle, meet billev.

billev, meet bizzle.

You're both making the same argument and I agree with you both.

Goodnight.

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2016 e-Golf SE in Urano Grey leased August 1st 2016 for $1500 down + $50 x 24 months * ChargePoint Home 32a (hardwired)


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 Post subject: Re: buying golf in SF Bay area without access to caif rebat
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 1:25 am 
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No, we are not making the same argument.

He is looking at pricing for new models and including incentives that he does not qualify for to derive the market price. That is, he thinks the ticket price for a 2016 SEL is $18K and, subsequently, used models should be less than that price. Then he looks at the used market and wonders why people like JT are listing their used vehicles around that same $18K. The answer, as I and JT tried to explain, is that he is incorrectly assuming a pass-through in regards to those savings (that he has already stated in this thread he does not qualify for).

His frustration stems from not being able to qualify for those incentives and for not seeing a reduced price on the used market reflexive of others realizing those incentives.

Even though he says he's not thinking that way, he inadvertently loops back to the same argument because his entire position is built on the premise that a car's market value is X-incentives. With vehicle purchases, more than any other commodity, someone else's out the door price does not become *your* out the door price--even from the same dealer with an identical car.

The entire conversation is hinging around this faulty premise that new and used cars' market values are inclusive of any/all incentives and discounts that buyers avail themselves of when they purchase or lease the vehicle.


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 Post subject: Re: buying golf in SF Bay area without access to caif rebat
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 8:57 am 
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Joined: Mon Oct 05, 2015 2:01 pm
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bizzle wrote:
No, we are not making the same argument.

The entire conversation is hinging around this faulty premise that new and used cars' market values are inclusive of any/all incentives and discounts that buyers avail themselves of when they purchase or lease the vehicle.


That's correct. Ask anyone that bought a car with an employee discount if they pass that savings on to the next consumer when they sell it. The answer is "hell no". However.... if you come from the "entitled" generation, you might incorrectly think so, that it is due you. The market sets the sales price of anything, if not artificially tampered with or manipulated by the government or its incentives. No one is AZ is getting a CA $2500 rebate. What they do get is no sales tax on used cars, as does NV.

Like stock, or any asset, the object in preserving capital is to buy low and sell high, relative to going market prices. If you have any doubt, ask Warren Buffet how it's done. :D

Bizzle is very well versed in finance and economics. I haven't heard such arguments as his since some other students I was in class with at a University were forced to think at this level, arguing with a professor.

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 Post subject: Re: buying golf in SF Bay area without access to caif rebat
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:51 am 
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Posts: 602
Why should seller pass on to the new used car buyer all the discounts that they got?
When selling a car you sell to make money.

If you want that, go look at a used Fiat 500e, those are going for $4k out of Manheim and hence about $6k. But the car should be selling for about $15k.

It's all about market, if the market can bear it, people sell at that price. If it can't, then the price goes down.

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 Post subject: Re: buying golf in SF Bay area without access to caif rebat
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:16 pm 
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Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:45 pm
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I can see that inductive reasoning isnt working, so lets just look at data that supports my assertion that Joules' "18K firm" + travel costs + hassle of arranging isnt a realistic price to a buyer in Calif

https://www.cars.com/for-sale/searchres ... 7&zc=94002

Here's 5 2015 SELs in the Bay Area from dealers available to me RIGHT NOW, no supposition, no debate.

Avg ASKING 17.9K, average Miles 12K. 3 of the 5 have a VW CPO tag on them.

On a 18K ASKING price used car at a dealer, one can pretty easily get to 16.5K or so. They are probably paying 13K for them at auction.

So here's the choice:

16.5K for the car, from a dealer, several with CPO warranty. OR 18K for the same car, from some dude on the internet who wants you to buy him a plane ticket home.

To come full circle, that is way I said would pay no more than 16K for a private party car 2015 SEL like the one offered to everyone on this board by Joules.

As why this price what it is, that's a rehash that I'll spare the board.


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 Post subject: Re: buying golf in SF Bay area without access to caif rebat
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:36 pm 
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billev wrote:
I can see that inductive reasoning isnt working, so lets just look at data that supports my assertion that Joules' "18K firm" + travel costs + hassle of arranging isnt a realistic price to a buyer in Calif

https://www.cars.com/for-sale/searchres ... 7&zc=94002

Here's 5 2015 SELs in the Bay Area from dealers available to me RIGHT NOW, no supposition, no debate.

Avg ASKING 17.9K, average Miles 12K. 3 of the 5 have a VW CPO tag on them.

On a 18K ASKING price used car at a dealer, one can pretty easily get to 16.5K or so. They are probably paying 13K for them at auction.

So here's the choice:

16.5K for the car, from a dealer, several with CPO warranty. OR 18K for the same car, from some dude on the internet who wants you to buy him a plane ticket home.

To come full circle, that is way I said would pay no more than 16K for a private party car 2015 SEL like the one offered to everyone on this board by Joules.

As why this price what it is, that's a rehash that I'll spare the board.

Go buy your e-Golf then, for whatever you want to pay.

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 Post subject: Re: buying golf in SF Bay area without access to caif rebat
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 5:41 pm 
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Joined: Sun Dec 20, 2015 7:32 pm
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Wow, you must be good to talk a dealer down from $18k to 16.5k.

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 Post subject: Re: buying golf in SF Bay area without access to caif rebat
PostPosted: Fri Mar 31, 2017 1:28 pm 
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Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2015 2:32 pm
Posts: 397
Location: Santa Cruz, CA
JoulesThief wrote:
if you come from the "entitled" generation


Image

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2016 e-Golf SE in Urano Grey leased August 1st 2016 for $1500 down + $50 x 24 months * ChargePoint Home 32a (hardwired)


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 Post subject: Re: buying golf in SF Bay area without access to caif rebat
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:24 pm 
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Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:45 pm
Posts: 11
Because I have a pathetic need to show people why I am right . . .


Heres a 2015 SEL premium for 15.5K with 10K miles.

https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/deta ... /overview/


Here's a certified one for 16.9K

https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/deta ... /overview/


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